Scandium has long been considered an “if” metal. If only it were available in quantity, it could transform aircraft production and fuel consumption. If only it were available in quantity, it could speed the emerging hydrogen economy. If only it were available in quantity, it could accelerate the rollout of 5G technologies. And so on.
The view has been that scandium could be used in numerous large-volume applications, if only supplies were sufficient to meet the potential demand. Manufacturers regularly cited a lack of sufficient scandium supply as the reason why they did not roll out new uses and products containing scandium.
After a near-mythic role in the 1980s (as a strengthening agent in aluminium alloys deployed in the last generation of Soviet MiG fighter aircraft and even, reputedly, in ballistic missile nosecones), scandium entered the banal in the 1990s, in sporting goods and, bizarrely, hand guns.
Bloom Energy turned the tide starting around 2010, with its introduction of fuel cells based on scandium-stabilised zirconia ceramic electrolytes. Bloom has grown rapidly and now represents perhaps 80% of the world’s annual consumption of scandium, a paltry 25t or so of oxide in 2021.
And yet, despite these rickety foundations, scandium consumption is poised to grow dramatically in the next decade, buoyed by new sources of supply and sustained by demand-side innovation.
The supply side
Let’s start with supply. Until about 2018, most scandium was supplied as a by-product in China and Russia, from uranium and titanium processing. Since then, however, much has changed.
First, Sumitomo Metal Mining built and has now commissioned a scandium recovery circuit at its Tagano Bay nickel high pressure acid leach (HPAL) plant in the Philippines. This plant recovers scandium oxalate for processing into oxide (and probably into scandium-zirconium oxide particles destined for Bloom Energy) in Japan. The plant recovers 7-8tpy of scandium oxide and when commissioned increased global supply by around 40%. Capital costs were perhaps US$5M/t of scandium oxide.
Second, the Chinese integrated titanium producer Lomon Billions has established a 20-30tpy scandium oxide facility with the potential to increase to 50tpy. The company estimates up to 100tpy of scandium oxide are available in its titanium plants using the sulphate process.
Third, in 2021, Rio Tinto commenced scandium recovery from its Sorel Tracy plant in Québec, Canada. The pilot plant can supply 3tpy of scandium oxide and cost US$6M. The site has the ability to supply an estimated 50-60tpy of oxide based on current raw material feed.
Finally, UC Rusal has both commissioned a 3tpy pilot scandium oxide plant, recovering scandium oxide from red mud deposits, and also commenced marketing and selling a range of scandium alloys (branded “ScAlution” alloys) that boast enhanced performance at low (typically 0.1%) concentrations of scandium.
Plus, it is not only Rusal that has pioneered low-scandium alloys. In the USA, Eck Industries, a specialist aluminium casting house, is commercialising cerium-based alloys in which scandium, again at low loadings, could provide additional strength as well as much reduced post-cast processing requirements.
Looking further out, there are numerous scandium projects in development, many of which should come into production around the middle of the decade, thanks to two parallel forces.
The main driver for scandium, as for so many minor metals, is vehicle electrification. There are multiple operating and development projects utilising HPAL technology to recover and separate nickel and cobalt in laterite deposits, many of which can in principle recover scandium. While the moral of Tagano Bay is that for existing plants retrofitting can be costly and low yield, there are emerging projects in Australia that are designing scandium recovery into their circuits alongside nickel and cobalt. The potential output of scandium can range from 50-100tpy or more, depending on the project.
The second driver is the heightened concerns over supply chain security for critical metals. In the EU this has led to the “ScaVanger” programme to recover scandium from titanium waste streams. In the USA, red mud scandium recovery as well as by-product scandium stand to benefit.
The demand side
The demand side is a little more complicated but nonetheless extremely positive. Bloom’s power generation business continues to grow and has surely been reinforced by severe power disruptions in the past three years in California and Texas. Moreover, Bloom has now received initial approvals for maritime power generation (IMO regulations are forcing seagoing vessels to reduce dramatically their sulphur emissions, and Bloom can facilitate this change), and Bloom is also developing its technology to run in reverse, so to speak, as a generator of hydrogen. Critically, Bloom in the past five years has managed to bring its system costs and performance under control, removing any technology-related going-concern issues.
Scandium is also a strong candidate for RF antennas able to support 5G frequencies. A typical high-end cell phone may require 100 RF filters, and in the 5G frequency range, scandium aluminium nitride is being used as the active material in these filters (called “bulk acoustic wave,” or “BAW” filters).
Aerospace is a third area of application, and while commercial aviation likely remains years away from broad use of scandium alloys, near-term use in space and autonomous aircraft is an avenue for strong potential growth of scandium alloys. The cost to place 1kg in orbit has dropped dramatically but is still of the order of US$1,000/kg, so any system weight reductions can be extremely valuable.
Electric vehicles (EVs) also offer the potential for large volumes of scandium demand. Weight reduction is the obvious reason. Lux Research has estimated a 1kg weight saving in an EV will be worth US$5 in 2030. But a second consideration is overall product cost. Scandium can reduce or potentially even eliminate the need for post-casting heat treatments, which can in some instances double the cost of an as-cast part. Thus the savings from the use of scandium alloys, especially at low scandium loadings, can be large.
In addition, as EVs shift to heat pumps in their HVAC systems, scandium can support the implementation of aluminium radiators without adding substantial system volume (as discussed by CM Group in its 2018 scandium report).
Naturally, there are other opportunities for scandium. Achieving a robust aluminium alloy able to perform at 300°C could displace large amounts of titanium, and Eck’s alloys are closing in on this goal. Maritime applications, especially in the military arena but also in autonomous vessels and ferries, could embrace scandium thanks to its greatly enhanced anti-corrosion impact in aluminium. Passenger jets are also a market that is likely to happen at some point.
Most important, perhaps, is the fact that well financed firms have entered the market and are able to supply up to about 100tpy each. Supply at this level is all-but-certain to create demand, and in turn this should stimulate new supply. Scandium’s chicken-and-egg problem, in which lack of supply held back demand that in turn held back supply, has been reversed, with growing (and reliable) supply poised to stimulate actual demand, that in turn will pull through new supply, and transform scandium from “if” to “when”.
CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, and investment banking advisory company headquartered in New York. The company is considered the foremost authority on markets for precious metals, along with manganese and molybdenum. The entry into tantalum and scandium research has been made possible by a new collaboration with Andrew Matheson and Patrick Stratton, who are both recognised experts in the tantalum market.
Andrew Matheson, the founder and principal of OnG Commodities LLC, has 25 years of experience in the tantalum industry, leading Cabot Corporation’s tantalum ore procurement and mineral development activities, as general manager of Cabot’s sputtering target business and serving as director of R&D. His experience includes a range of other specialty materials including scandium, niobium and rare earth metals.
Patrick Stratton spent 16 years with Roskill, where he led the tantalum research. His experience also covers niobium, gallium, magnesium metal and titanium. He was the lead author of published research reports on several of these commodities and undertook many consulting assignments for producers, project developers, financial institutions and government bodies.
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