As minor metals draw global attention and become more critical to supply chains, independent traders who helped build these markets are facing new challenges and uncertainty about their future in the sector as growing protectionism squeezes their ability to operate.
Spot supply of minor metals — now increasingly known everywhere as critical minerals — was once the domain of a few small specialised trading firms that built deep expertise in these niche markets. These traders provided and continue to bring liquidity and reliability to these markets, establishing strong commercial and personal relationships with customers.
“We were lifeboats,” one trader with 35 years in the industry said. “We’re there for our customers when they need us most.”
These metals are essential for a range of applications that do not always make headlines such as indium in soldering, bismuth in pigments and antimony in flame retardants.
As these minor metals become increasingly vital to sectors such as energy, artificial intelligence and defence, it might be assumed that companies with specialist knowledge would be best positioned to benefit. But a fundamental change in the trading landscape driven by protectionist policies is challenging these smaller players’ ability to operate in these markets.
Over the past year, some traders have retired early, shifted to more dynamic markets such as base metals or closed down and considered new careers. Geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions are undermining traders’ ability to operate. Sanctions and tariffs have made back-to-back trading deals — buying here to sell there — increasingly complicated.
And the rise in prices for many metals to record highs that has been caused by restrictions has forced trading firms to tap heavily into credit lines to remain active. Traders now need licences for metals that previously required none, adding layers of compliance and bureaucracy. For dual-use items, exporters in China are now required to notify authorities of the final end-user and the intended application of the material being traded. This is something traders cannot always provide.
Soaring regulatory costs are another challenge for independent traders, sources told Argus.”We are pushed to the margins,” the first trader said. “It’s not about supply and demand any more — it’s about Washington and Beijing. It’s no longer a trader’s game,” he added.
“These markets are becoming untradeable,” a gallium and germanium supplier said.
Another challenge for the specialists is that as critical minerals have grown in prominence, they are attracting attention from new market entrants that have much deeper pockets. Large trading companies, hedge funds and banks are entering markets tied to the energy transition and defence.
One example is base metals trading giant Trafigura, which is actively expanding its minor metals position through its investment in zinc producer Nyrstar, which produces antimony in Australia with government backing for critical minerals. Trafigura also has an interest in recovering and processing both gallium and germanium in the US, from the residue of zinc processing in Tennessee.
“Minor metals have become an increasingly important part of product assays,” the company told Argus.
Large traders’ participation in minor metals is growing because the widespread use of these products in emerging technologies, combined with China’s export restrictions, has created premium markets outside China. Additionally, offtake contracts now focus more on sharing margins from processing raw materials, rather than just buying and selling.
When prices fall, who will stay?
But as markets get busier and more complex, new opportunities are emerging for adaptable traders, especially for medium-sized firms that have the credit lines to capitalise on the uncertainty in the current trading environment.
“The market is more difficult to navigate than ever, but this is cyclical,” another trader told Argus.
Antimony is a strong example of a market in which specialist knowledge still provides an opportunity to flourish. The metal surged to an all-time high of just above $60,000/t this year on export controls and ensuing tight availability, attracting trading interest from new entrants and junior mining firms. But the rally is over, and prices have been in a downtrend since June. The decline is likely to accelerate further as China has suspended its ban on exports to the US for one year, and the two countries reached a trade agreement.
These export controls and high antimony prices have spurred production elsewhere, especially in southeast Asian countries, creating new supply sources and arbitrage opportunities.
It is unclear where the new price floor is for antimony. But some traders who have already adapted quickly may be able to weather the downtrend even if it is drastic, as they have know-how and experience to navigate opaque markets.
“When prices fall, large players often find it too risky to stay,” another trader said. “I’ve seen this repeatedly over 20 years in the sector.” Agility in adapting to policy shifts and new agreements is crucial. “We can adapt to market shifts. We don’t have commitments to owners,” the same trader concluded.
By Cristina Belda
Argus Media
This article was first published by Argus Media, November 2025.
