Antimony prices have been on a rapid uptrend since Beijing announced the addition of antimony and some of its products to China’s export licensing scheme from 15 September, and with the global supply crunch showing no sign of easing the international community is now left grappling with increasingly fraught supply chains.
The new policy will affect antimony concentrate, antimony metal (ingot), antimony oxides (99.99pc grade minimum), antimony trimethyl, triethyl and other organoantimony compounds, antimony hydrides and indium antimonide. It is important to note that this is not an outright ban but rather an export permit procedure similar to the one implemented for gallium, germanium and graphite last year.
With China dominating global supply, the announcement alone has triggered a surge of enquiries for material in Eu-rope due to critically low regional inventories. Export volumes booked in China in the days following the announcement exceeded typical monthly shipment volumes this year, suppliers in China told Argus, as buyers rushed to se-cure more material before the controls came into effect.
The global antimony market had already been tight for some time, underpinned by depleting domestic resources in China and limited concentrate coming to Europe from various parts of the world. The civil conflict in Myanmar — a major source of antimony ore, mostly exported to China — is further exacerbating the supply shortage.
Prices have surged accordingly, building on levels that were already significantly higher than historic norms. At the time of writing in mid-September, Argus’ European assessments for antimony regulus grade II and trioxide prices stand at $26,500-27,000/t du Rotterdam – up by 115pc year on year, and a 12pc jump China announced the export controls on 14 August (see chart below).
US prices for 99.65pc grade antimony metal stand at $12.70-13.30/lb cif US as of mid-September, marking a 46pc increase since the announcement, Argus data show.
At the time of writing, most market participants expect European prices to remain above $27,000/t until at least the end of this year.
Even if Chinese prices soften slightly – which may occur as more antimony is allocated the domestic market – the international supply crunch shows no sign of easing yet. And long-term demand is poised to increase, underpinned by both traditional and newer applications including solar panels.
International traders face growing risks
As antimony prices jump and uncertainty hangs over the longer-term impact of the export controls, international traders are facing a growing raft of challenges.
Market participants note that the risk of reneging and cancellations from China and other southeast Asian suppliers has risen amid the price volatility. “It is becoming increasingly difficult to navigate this situation,” a trader said. “The risks of trading antimony outweigh the rewards,” he added, admitting that finding reliable sources is challenging.
Other sources warn that there might be an increase in the use of smuggling back routes along the China-Vietnam border, in order to circumvent China’s official customs. This was a significant problem for the industry in the past, before China implemented a crackdown in 2017.
Furthermore, because of the complexity of the antimony value chain, China’s new export controls could end up pushing some international trading firms out of the market, as has happened with gallium and germanium. Under the terms of the new controls, exporters may be required to notify authorities of the final end-user and application of the material traded — information that some companies may consider too sensitive or not feasible to provide.
In the European market, only a handful of trading houses regularly trade in antimony. The fact that the EU’s REACH — registration, evaluation, authorisation and restriction of chemicals — regulation has become more costly over time has already caused some market participants to step back.
That said, the impact of the export controls could have been more drastic — in recent years, international traders and consumers have diversified their antimony supply away from China. European countries are seeking more from Vietnam, Myanmar, Bolivia, and Tajikistan. And China has been exporting less and importing more to cover its own needs. In all, China exported 5,240t of antimony metal in 2023, down by 52pc from 2022, according to Chinese customs data.
Belgium’s Campine has already reduced its reliance on China for antimony metal to below 5pc, and is now partly supplied internally through its own antimony recycling. France’s AMG Sica’s level of reliance on China is unclear, but the company has been calling for strategies to ensure stable antimony supply for domestic industry.
Sparking interest – a new antimony rush?
The export controls arguably place the US under even greater pressure than Europe. The US already pays a notable premium for antimony grade II which is mostly used in the US for lead-acid batteries but also in military equipment.
The US has antimony reserves but no active mines since the last operative site closed in 1992, and relies on imports, most of which come from China. Unsurprisingly, the export restrictions have now sparked new interest in developing new antimony sources in the US, and in other parts of the world. But it remains to be seen which are viable and how quickly plans can progress.
Perpetua Resources is redeveloping the Stibnite mine, located in central Idaho. The mine has just moved one step closer to production, with the US Forest Service in September finishing its final environmental impact statement (FEIS) for the authorization of the project. If it comes online, this will be the only source of mined antimony in the US and is expected to supply about 35pc of domestic antimony demand in the first six years of production.
United States Antimony Corporation, the only antimony smelter in North America, said it was looking to increase its supply of the minor metal, allowing it to ramp up its facility. And in Australia, the Hillgrove gold-antimony project, recently acquired by Larvotto Resources, aims to produce 5,400 t/yr of antimony starting in 2026.
Meanwhile, there are high-grade antimony deposits in Alaska as well that were active during the First World War, but reviving the mine may face legislative challenges, sources told Argus. Market participants expect that more junior miners developing gold pro-jects will now pay close attention to antimony, too.
There is a degree of scepticism about which new projects will move forward successfully, in part because they will require huge infrastructure investments. Even those closest to pro-duction are still some time away from launching, therefore they are unable to ease the supply crunch that is sending prices to record highs now. “New projects will take at least two to four years to develop,” a market participant told Argus.
Already-operating gold mines like Olimpiada, owned by Russian Polyus, could somewhat relieve the shortage, but there is a lack of clarity about its exports. The firm is not delivering as much raw material as in the past, Argus understands.
Similarly, any production increase at the Talco Gold project in Tajikistan which came online in late April 2022, could help alleviate the shortage. The project is expected to process 1.5mn t/yr of ore to produce 2.2 t/yr of gold and 16,000 t/yr of antimony metal when it reaches full capacity. But so far, the project has prioritised gold production, making the most of record high gold prices.
By Cristina Belda, Deputy Editor
Argus Metals International
