Image by Sommart Sombutwanitkul, Shutlestock
The lanthanum market is currently oversupplied, as the rare earth element is produced as a by-product of other rare earth minerals with stronger demand However, the emergence of battery technologies utilising lanthanum oxide-based electrolytes could tip the market into a deficit in the next decade if supply doesn’t keep pace. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence examines the evolution, opportunities and challenges of this new application.
A brief history of solid-state batteries
Solid-state batteries, which have found commercial success in the medical and micro-device markets, were first commercialised in large-format transport applications in 2015 by French solid-state cell producer, Blue Solutions.
This technology used a polymeric solid electrolyte and paired a lithium iron phosphate [LFP) cathode with a lithium metal anode. Although this represented a major technical and commercial breakthrough, the technology suffered from poor ionic conductivity and was ultimately limited to predictable drive cycle applications-eBus applications are still the primary demand driver of the company’s technology today.
With the aim of achieving mass market penetration of solid state batteries, novel solid electrolyte compositions based on polymer, sulphide, and oxide materials have been developed over the past 10 years, greatly improving the performance characteristics of all three classes of solid electrolytes and diversifying prospective raw material requirements.
For oxide-based solid electrolytes one of the leading compositions is lithium lanthanum zirconium oxide (LLZO, Li7La3Zr2O12) which, if commercialised at scale, could have dramatic implications for long-term lanthanum demand.
Solid-state batteries enter the GWh-era
At the end of 2023, Chinese automaker Nio livestreamed a 1,000 km drive of the world’s first oxide-based semi-solid-state electric vehicle (EV), based on a technology developed by WeLion New Energy Technology.
This has since sparked a wave of intense activity in the industry, with several Chinese automakers announcing delivery of their first solid-state battery powered models between 2024 and 2026, with the Chinese market highly favouring oxide-based lanthana-rich solid electrolytes. Ex-China battery innovators and automakers, too, doubled down on solid-state delivery timelines, accelerating expected technology qualification timelines.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (Benchmark), the world’s leading price reporting and market intelligence provider for the lithium-ion battery industry, forecasts that production of solid-state and lithium metal batteries will grow at a rate of around 44% per year between 2024 and 2036.Oxide-based solid-state batteries are expected to account for a significant proportion of this, representing 53% of a forecast 630 gigawatt-hours [GWh) market by 2036.
Lanthanum and zirconium, which are critical elements used in many state-of-the-art oxide-based solid-state electrolytes, are not anticipated by Benchmark to be an immediate bottleneck as supply is strong and both are generally produced as by-products for other mineral mining operations.
- Lanthanum is currently in oversupply and is mined with other rare earth elements that are less abundant, but have larger demand drivers.
Zircon (the sulphate ore of zirconium) is a by-product of titanium and other heavy metals mining and has a robust supply chain. However, these supply chains could become a significant consideration in the mid- to long-term as production of these technologies ramp-up into the 10s and 100s of GWh, where Benchmark forecasts raw material supply-constraints could become a bottleneck to oxide-based solid-state battery commercial ramp-up.
- Benchmark’s Rare Earths Forecast shows that supply of refined lanthanum will be insufficient to meet forecast oxide-based solid-state battery production by 2036.
- Lanthanum production is predominantly carried out in China, potentially adding further risks to Western battery makers also exploring oxide-based materials.
The mass production of battery-grade zirconia is a challenge that needs to be overcome.
Alternative next-generation electrolytes have their own bottlenecks
Although oxide-based materials dominate current forecast solid-state and lithium metal battery market growth, alternative chemistries are gaining popularity. Each of these have their own supply chain considerations which could impact the market in the short-term.
As such it is important, when developing any technology, to understand the raw materials that are required to create key components and to identify any bottleneck that could impact commercial roll-out as early as possible.
- For sulphide-based electrolytes, lithium sulphide (Li2S) is a critical near-term bottleneck as the material is currently only currently produced on a scale suitable for research and development.
Electrolyte salts are the key critical bottleneck in the near-term for polymer-based solid-state batteries as well as lithium metal batteries using novel liquid electrolytes. Novel salt compositions often require several years to perfect and then scale.
By Rory McNulty, Product Director (New Technology),
And Matthew Bird, Senior Market Reporter.
